These are some of the projections made by India’s new draft National Energy Policy (NEP), released by the government’s think tank, Niti Aayog, in June 2017. The policy closed for public comments on July 14, 2017.

The NEP focuses on four major objectives: Affordable energy access for all; reducing dependence on fossil-fuel imports; becoming a low carbon economy through growth in renewable energy; and sustaining economic growth.

Strategies to achieve these include privatising coal production and letting the market set prices for coal, removing subsidies on electricity and providing direct benefits to people vulnerable to price rise and letting competition among different resources (both fossil fuel and renewables) decide the energy mix of the country, not policy interventions.
However, while the NEP recommends several ambitious changes to the way coal is produced and distributed, an IndiaSpend analysis showed that the plan projects, at its highest, a doubling of coal-fired capacity by 2040, which is not supported by other projections made about coal by other government documents, such as the draft National Electricity Plan (produced by the Central Electricity Authority in 2016), which said India would not require any more coal capacity addition until at least 2027.

What will 2040 look like?

By 2040, India’s population is predicted to increase to 1.6 billion, and the rate of urbanisation (projected average rate of change of the size of the urban population over a given period of time) of this population will be 47%. The share of manufacturing in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will double from its current levels to 30%. As of 2017, nearly 25% of the population is still without access to electricity and 40% without access to clean cooking fuel.
NOTE: Figures for 2022 & 2040 are projections; Projections for various energy scenarios were done through an energy modelling exercise called the India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS), 2047, which was used to project likely energy demand in the country every five years up to 2040. The IESS makes several assumptions, such as the spread of energy efficiency programmes, consumers changing their energy consumption behaviour and growth in GDP, but these results may change if the models used to predict them do.

Under the “ambitious scenario”, energy demand in 2040 could be brought down by 2628 terawatt hours (more than twice the amount of electricity that the country generated in 2012: 1050 terawatt hours), which is a 16.6% reduction over the “default scenario” (business as usual), through improved energy efficiency and technological advancements. Over 90% of this reduction could come from innovation and increased efficiency in the transport, industry and construction sectors.

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